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Jets vs. Stars (October 17)

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Jets vs. Stars odds

jets odds +120
star odds -145
over/under 6 (-110/-110)
time 8:30 PM ET
tv set BSSW
Odds by BetMGM. Get the latest NHL odds here.

Central Division trends this week as the Dallas Stars host the Winnipeg Jets. Last season, Dallas won three of his four matchups between the two clubs.

Will the Stars handle business again, or can the Jets grab the win as short road underdogs?

Jets posting strong defense stats

The Jets started the season 1-0 after a 4-1 win over the New York Rangers. In that game, their defense did a great job shutting down a talented New York lineup, giving up just 2.26 expected goals against him in 5v5 hours (xGA).

Backing up this strong defensive effort was stellar goaltending from veteran netminer Conor Hellebuick, who is expected to start the contest. Against the Rangers, he stopped his 40 of his 41 shots he faced and performed well with . 976 his SV%.

Most of those shots were away from high-risk areas, but he still saved more than expected 1.81 goals. This strong performance was a continuation of last year’s strong campaign by Hellebuyck.

Last season he was ranked 11th among starting goalkeepers with a 5-5 average of goals per 60 minutes (GSAx/60). 910 SV% with his 29-27-10 and his 2.97 GAA that year.

He often had to bail out the team, but Winnipeg should be defensively healthier this season thanks to coaching changes. Rick Bowness, who came in from Dallas during the offseason, is looking to change the identity of this team.

Bowness is a defensively oriented coach who played a big role in Dallas’ success last year, especially on the blue line. At 5v5, the Stars ranked him in the top half of the league in both GA and xGA.

His defense-oriented system led to many low-scoring games as Dallas’ O/U went 34-44 last year. Winnipeg boast some talent in the top six of their forward group, but their depth should be a big concern.

As with last year, most of the scoring will likely come from the top six players, which poses a problem for a strong defensive team.

Stars Another Stingy Side

On the other side of the ice, we can expect Jake Ettinger to crease for the Dallas Stars. In his first two games of the season, Ettinger was 2-0 with his SV% of .968% and his GAA of 1.00.

Ettinger picked up right where he left off when he got his head around a tremendous Calgary offense in the playoffs last season. Last year he finished with his 30-15-1 with .914 SV% and his 2.53 GAA.

In a two-game career against the Jets, Ettinger is 2-0 with a .911 SV% and a 2.42 GAA. As mentioned, Rick Bowness put together a good defensive system last year in Dallas. He’s currently in Winnipeg, but trusts this defensive force under new head coach Peter DeBoer.

In the first two games of the season, the Stars were ranked 9th in the league in 5v5 xGA/60. Thanks to stingy defense and good goalkeeping, Under has had hits in both of his first two games.

Jets vs. Stars Pick

Across the three games these two teams have combined to play this season, no more than six goals have been scored in all of them. We should expect that trend to continue in this matchup.

Oettinger began to cement the fact that he wasn’t a one-hit wonder last year, but Helleweik has been a consistent top-tier goalkeeper since entering the league in 2015. Because both Rick Bowness and Peter DeBoer are traditionally defensive.

The last time the two goalkeepers met, the Stars won 3-2 in extra time. He lays down extra juice to bring this total to 6.5, but I don’t put anything above -135 at 6.5, so I think under 6 is a good play as well.

Choose: Less than 6.5 (-135)

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