Kraken vs. Avalanche (October 21)

Kraken vs Avalanche odds

kraken odds	+230
avalanche odds	-295
over/under	6.5o-120
time	9:00 PM ET
tv set	ALT2
Odds by BetMGM. Get the latest NHL odds here.

The Colorado Avalanche’s championship parade continues, with the winner of the defending Stanley Cup hosting the Seattle Kraken in Friday night’s NHL action.

The Avs offense has been solid since the beginning of the season, scoring 17 goals in the first four games of the season. However, Avs relies heavily on power play scoring and may face a tougher challenge than expected from Kraken.

Kraken for positive regression

Limited skill and ineffective goaltending have been the Kraken’s downfall since joining the league. Early season metrics show the team is struggling to capitalize on opportunities despite remaining analytically sound, with Seattle scoring an above average 53.8% Corsi and his has an expected goal of 54.5% of

There are indications that the Kraken needs some luck in the pack. First, their actual goal of rating is well below expectations. At 5-5, Seattle scored 11-7, an actual scoring percentage of 38.9%.

Plus, their PDO is one of the worst in the league for the second year in a row. Currently, Kraken’s shooting percentage is his third-worst at 5.3%, his save percentage is his 90.4%, his 11th-worst, and his PDO hits 0.957.

Inevitably, the team falls on both ends of the PDO spectrum, but given the success of Kraken’s analysis, we expect progress from the league’s newest franchise. No, but it will help Seattle become more competitive in upcoming games.

---

Can Avalanche keep up this pace?

The Avalanche have received a lot of attention for their offensive prowess, and unsurprisingly they haven’t been featured as an elite defensive team in the past few seasons. It helps to offset expected regressions.

Avs has struck an unsustainable balance between production and output to launch its 2022-23 campaign. The defending champion is averaging less than 8.0 high danger chances per game, and he’s scoring only 6.4% of his shots on 5-for-5. Nonetheless, they are averaging 4.3 goals per game for him, thanks to an abundance of special teams scoring.

Whether the power play opportunity disappears or the 53.9% conversion rate returns to normal range, Nathan MacKinnon and company are very likely to fall behind.

Avalanche goals will be harder to achieve as production and output metrics are balanced in upcoming games. Thankfully, they can lean into defensive shells to limit their opponent’s chances and stay competitive.

Kraken vs. Avalanche Pick

We recommend two plus money bets on tonight’s Western Conference game.

The Kraken has deployed a methodical game plan that focuses on defense, promoting possession and overwhelming opponents. It’s a similar brand that Avs play, and it can be a closer match than expected, with goals at a premium.

So it’s worth playing +100 or more and less than 6.5 and Kraken on the pack line.

Choose: Under 6.5 +100, Kraken +1.5 +100