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Market Report for Friday, October 20
wrap up: The Predators entered the third period with a 3-1 lead, but blew the lead and lost 5-3 in regulation. In none of my 10 wins this season have I been on the right side of a comeback, but in 4 of my 10 losses I’ve been on the opposite side of the team’s blowing multi-goals. The market agreed with me (there was a lot of value in betting on Nashville at -130 and -135) but just before game time his backup goalkeeper Kevin his Lankinen was announced as the starter. We were all surprised when A small bet on Carolina made the night even worse, and after four straight losses, I was back at .500 (and in the red).
victory: Ten loss: Ten Obtained unit: -1.17 units ROI: -6.1%
Betstamp: We track all plays with a third party bet tracking app. Bets are revealed after the game starts. I also keep my own personal records, which may vary slightly from Betstamp due to some factors, but should be close in most cases.
today: Heading into a busy weekend of hockey action, there are only three games on Friday.
All game lines are through the DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but we may use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL odds page if they are more priced and widely available. All recommended bets are accompanied by a recommended wager.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) vs Florida Panthers (-110)
Florida looked like a much more dangerous team than the Lightning to start the season with a much higher scoring percentage. Tampa Bay also has a bad defense, so I don’t think they will shut out the Panthers like they did in the 2021-22 playoffs. However, neither team is at full power.
go out to lightning Anthony Cirelli, Zach Bogosian, Philip Myers
For the Panthers: Aaron Ekblad, Anthony Duclair, Brandon Montour
In my model, the Panthers should be set slightly favored (between -115 and -120), but not worth the -110 bet justification. Florida doesn’t have the depth it did last season when it traded Mackenzie Wieger, so filling Ekblad’s spot in this lineup will be much more difficult.
Detroit Red Wings (-115) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (-105)
No Tyler Bertuzzi. There is no Yakub Vrana. And would I still bet on Red Wing? This is not how I wanted to head into the weekend. Detroit is a bad hockey team. But Chicago may be the worst team in the league. Both teams are resting and in my opinion the market is overestimating the Blackhawks home his ice advantage. Detroit are a much more capable team offensively, and assuming Bill Husso starts on goal, Detroit has games scheduled against the Ducks and Devils, but they’ll be held over four days. . In other words, the lack of back-to-back situations means that the best goaltenders are likely to start on Friday. reluctantly bet the Red Wings at -115 or better. But shop around. Some shops list this game near -105 or -110 on both sides.
Bed: Detroit Red Wings -115 Stake: Earn 1 credit for 1.15 credits
Seattle Kraken (+225) at Colorado Avalanche (-265)
Avalanche captain Gabriel Landskog has been sidelined for a long time due to injury, and defender Devon Towes is now listed as day-to-day. It’s unclear if Toews will play on Friday, but either way, Avalanche should be able to beat Kraken on Friday. However, it will be the first of two games for him in two days, as Vegas Golden is set to host his Knights on Saturday. We got to see Alex Georgiev make his first start, but head coach Jared Bednar has yet to pick either goalkeeper as his go-to guy, and Seattle won him in his first five games. have lost four, conceding at least four of his goals in each loss. In my model, if Georgiev nodded, Avalanche would be priced at about -220. This means that Kraken is worth supporting, but if the home team starts his Pavel Francouz, they have a better chance of winning the game.
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Recap of the 2021-22 betting season:
NHL Betting Guide (Futures): 25.9 units
Regular Season (sides and totals): 6.22 units
Player Props: -15.33 units
Playoffs (sides and totals): -14.43 units
idea: It was my first time creating large-scale content, so I went too far last season (The Propagator is one example). I was worried that my typical betting habits would be seen as too selective and not good enough for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.
from now on: I went back to focusing on what worked for me all along: making long-term forecasts for the futures market and handicapping all 1,312 regular season games.
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